Rates.
The price of money, end to end: the Treasury curve and its inversions, the Fed's net liquidity, and how tight financial conditions actually are. Every formula printed, every source named.
The Treasury curve.
US Treasury constant-maturity yields, %
Loading the curve.
Source: U.S. Treasury
Curve shift
Loading the curve.
Inversion tracker
Loading spreads.
Financial stress
NFCI is the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index; STLFSI4 is the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. Both read above zero when financial conditions are tighter than average. HY OAS is the ICE BofA US High-Yield option-adjusted spread: the extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds.
Net liquidity
Net liquidity is updating.
Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus reverse repo, $ trillions
Source: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD)
Net liquidity = WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYD: Fed total assets, less the Treasury General Account (the government cash held at the Fed), less the overnight reverse-repo balance. Weekly series forward-filled onto the daily grid.
Recession signals
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Economic surprise
The releases that move the tape.
High-impact US data on the calendar, next out first
Source: Fed · BLS · BEA published schedules
The prints the desk clears the deck for: FOMC decisions, CPI, payrolls, GDP and PCE, straight from the agencies' own published calendars.
Treasury auctions
Loading auctions.