Rates.
The curve has re-steepened.
US Treasury constant-maturity yields, %
The curve has re-steepened. US Treasury constant-maturity yields, % Source: U.S. Treasury.
Curve evidence actions
SourceU.S. Treasury
Curve shift
The curve twisted steeper.
Level, slope and curvature of the shift over a month, basis points
The curve twisted steeper. Level, slope and curvature of the shift over a month, basis points Source: US Treasury constant-maturity yields. Method: Level = mean yield change across 11 tenors. Slope = 2s10s change (10Y move minus 2Y). Curvature = the 2-5-10 butterfly, 2×5Y move minus the 2Y and 10Y moves. Bear = yields up, bull = down.
Decomposition evidence actions
Evidence gaps: Calculation method 3 · Derived artifact 3
3 exact observations
SourceUS Treasury constant-maturity yields
MethodLevel = mean yield change across 11 tenors. Slope = 2s10s change (10Y move minus 2Y). Curvature = the 2-5-10 butterfly, 2×5Y move minus the 2Y and 10Y moves. Bear = yields up, bull = down.
Inversion tracker
Financial stress
NFCI is the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index; STLFSI4 is the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. Both read above zero when financial conditions are tighter than average. HY OAS is the ICE BofA US High-Yield option-adjusted spread: the extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds.
Net liquidity
Net liquidity is updating.
Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus reverse repo, $ trillions
Net liquidity is updating. Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus reverse repo, $ trillions Source: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD). Method: Net liquidity = WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYD: Fed total assets, less the Treasury General Account (the government cash held at the Fed), less the overnight reverse-repo balance. Weekly series forward-filled onto the daily grid.
SourceFRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD)
MethodNet liquidity = WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYD: Fed total assets, less the Treasury General Account (the government cash held at the Fed), less the overnight reverse-repo balance. Weekly series forward-filled onto the daily grid.
Recession signals
Economic surprise
The releases that move the tape.
High-impact US data on the calendar, next out first
The releases that move the tape. High-impact US data on the calendar, next out first Source: Fed · BLS · BEA · published dates and estimated windows. Method: Agency-published dates are identified separately from pattern-estimated windows.
SourceFed · BLS · BEA · published dates and estimated windows
MethodAgency-published dates are identified separately from pattern-estimated windows.
Treasury auctions
Upcoming
Recent results
Auction evidence actions
Evidence gaps: Calculation method 4 · Derived artifact 41
41 exact observations