ES7,532.25−0.60%Number: 7532.25 quoted units, observed 2026-07-17T14:21:07.000Z. Source: Yahoo Finance, Latest delayed ES quote; session change versus prior close. Formula: Δ% = (last / prior close − 1) × 100. Press i or Enter to inspect.NQ28,856.00−1.27%Number: 28856 quoted units, observed 2026-07-17T14:21:07.000Z. Source: Yahoo Finance, Latest delayed NQ quote; session change versus prior close. Formula: Δ% = (last / prior close − 1) × 100. Press i or Enter to inspect.CL81.06+3.55%Number: 81.06 quoted units, observed 2026-07-17T14:21:07.000Z. Source: Yahoo Finance, Latest delayed CL quote; session change versus prior close. Formula: Δ% = (last / prior close − 1) × 100. Press i or Enter to inspect.GC4,002.80+0.27%Number: 4002.8 quoted units, observed 2026-07-17T14:21:07.000Z. Source: Yahoo Finance, Latest delayed GC quote; session change versus prior close. Formula: Δ% = (last / prior close − 1) × 100. Press i or Enter to inspect.BTC63,211.37−0.90%Number: 63211.37 quoted units, observed 2026-07-17T14:21:07.000Z. Source: Yahoo Finance, Latest delayed BTC quote; session change versus prior close. Formula: Δ% = (last / prior close − 1) × 100. Press i or Enter to inspect.VIX18.19+8.73%Number: 18.19 quoted units, observed 2026-07-17T14:21:07.000Z. Source: Yahoo Finance, Latest delayed VIX quote; session change versus prior close. Formula: Δ% = (last / prior close − 1) × 100. Press i or Enter to inspect.

SNAPSHOT·Jul 17 09:21 CT

REGIME·RISK-ON

delayed

Evidence card · 2026-07-17

SPX +1-session posture-aligned hit rate

5.6%n=18

Median realized return -0.58%.

Source: Thesis scorecard JSON
Formula: Posture-aligned realized returns divided by observed returns, multiplied by 100. Method
Timestamp: 2026-07-17
Image: Open 1200 × 630 image

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