Thesis Record.

HYG/LQD printed 0.740983, 2.21 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.69% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.33% worst decile; ES had a +0.70% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.38% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

HYG/LQD printed 0.742494, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

1 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 5 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.68% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.742886, 2.52 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.99% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.742518, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.742531, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.742425, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.742426, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.740983

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.742326

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.742326

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.742326

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.742326

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.742326

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.742326

HYG/LQD printed 0.742853, 2.58 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.32% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.10% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725310, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 15, 2026 · 0.741866