Thesis Record.

COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD) printed 38.0 percentile, 2.55 standard deviations below its prior 52-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-off direction, 4 disagree, and 3 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.09% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -4.14% worst decile; ES had a -0.23% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -4.03% worst decile.

The read is invalid if COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD) records at or above 69.1 percentile, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=52 observations, on its next weekly print.

HYG/LQD printed 0.750165, 3.17 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

4 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 3 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.56% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -4.65% worst decile; ES had a +0.33% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -4.65% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.723276, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 13, 2026 · 0.747895

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 12, 2026 · 0.749232

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 12, 2026 · 0.749232

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 11, 2026 · 0.749208

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 11, 2026 · 0.749208

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 11, 2026 · 0.749208

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 11, 2026 · 0.749208

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Aug 11, 2026 · 0.749208

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745292, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745199, 2.70 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.744965, 2.67 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.95% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +1.03% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.744989, 2.68 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.95% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +1.03% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745324, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745185, 2.70 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.744989, 2.68 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.95% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +1.03% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.745315, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 23, 2026 · 0.744283

HYG/LQD printed 0.741319, 2.26 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.742426, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.741125, 2.23 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.741321, 2.26 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.741125, 2.23 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.741297, 2.26 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 20, 2026 · 0.742294

HYG/LQD printed 0.742494, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

1 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 5 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.68% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.742886, 2.52 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.99% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.742518, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.742531, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.742425, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.742426, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 17, 2026 · 0.739186

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.740991

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.740991

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.740991

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.740991

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.740991

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 16, 2026 · 0.740991

HYG/LQD printed 0.742853, 2.58 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.32% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.10% worst decile.

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725310, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed Jul 15, 2026 · 0.740533